CONTRARIANTHINKER

 

TA WATCH ARCHIVE

UPDATE : Silver has tested support & bounced up. The technicals say we could now break out to the upside of the broad channel (there is a MM outstanding still from the inverse H & S). However Ted Butler's 11th Oct commentary noted that the COT commercials had increased short positions. Ah - but today is another day. Even I was short silver yesterday - a pullback was that obvious. (Actually silver quite near lows of the day right now).

Silver started trickling down even as I was annotating today's silver chart (now moved from the home page to the Charticle below due to size). IMO the H & S scenario is currently less likely than the inverse one, if only because the inverse H & S is a fait accompli. Earlier today I wrote 'I expect a test of the neckline today or tomorrow. If it holds we are destined to break up out of the broad channel.' Since posting we have actually hit that neckline and are back-testing it as I write.  For Silver Gold & FTSE charts visit...

Latest Thinking 2

Go to the Gold Eagle forum - especially 17.00 hours onwards yesterday (11/10/4) for a good discussion of PM wave counts - which is still ongoing BTW.

Mon 11th Oct

Apparently NY is open today, and metal futures are trading, contrary to what I was told Friday evening. The holiday story I picked up may have referred to Canada only. Just as well I'm back in the hot seat to check out the start of trading! 

My plan for today was to buy Randgold on the LSE and move on to other things. Phase 1 accomplished, see you later. 

This is NOT a chart for day traders.

Long Weekend

Monday holidays tend not to be kind to PMs

Pause 4 Thought

...ties in with....

Latest Thinking

Fri 8th Oct

UPDATE 16.00 HOURS GMT

Silver refused the chance of an H & S top & decided instead to test the top of the Stockcharts channel. So we did get to $7.30 after all. Before we start celebrating, let's see if Ag can stay over $7.25 going in to the weekend - the current top of the 15-minute tick channel. Shares usually lead the metal, and they are dragging their heels a bit. Some silver shares have some serious catching up to do BTW if silver shows itself to truly be in an impulsive wave 3. And there is no doubt this week's move has been impulsive. Meanwhile gold is showing strength. 'Lincoln' from Gold-Eagle forum has put out a call for 429 that has broken out and should therefore be fulfilled in the near future. He has a proven track record. If once again he is right, have I got a long-term chart to show YOU...

....later.

-------

If the 'Double top' H&S is to complete today I expect us to crawl back to about 7.20 before dropping to 6.95. This will be a test of a significant inverse Head & Shoulders which has a better than 50/50 chance of holding. Failure here and silver will probably bounce off the broad channel median and back up to test the red neckline from below. The good news is - silver's action over the next day or so should resolve the wave count once and for all, and all the TA points to higher prices soon. I did not see tomorrows chart today, so anything I write is just my opinion, which I am trying to train turn on a dime when confronted with new evidence. I may have changed my mind even before you read this.

Think for yourself.

Thu 7th Oct

Latest Thinking

Bubbling Under

Wed 6th Oct

The Anomalous Open Interest Pattern of the Gold Market

International Forecaster has same gold & silver targets as me

A perfect opportunity to downsize the world's population?

Tuesday 5th Oct

Silver is indeed looking to hit the upper rail of the channel. CDE is lagging this time - a contra-indicator. This scenario could still play out...

Lateral Thinker

New DROOY charts

Love/Hate

4 more stocks will be uploaded this evening

Canadian Juniors

I have quite a few new charts today but this a.m. a Hi-ab took down our power lines B4 I could upload anything. Normal service will be resumed very soon....

Monday 4th Oct

Conflict of conflict of interest...

The Carlyle Group

Is the FTSE signaling a FED-induced pre-election rally in the SMs...

New gold & silver charts...

Lateral Thinker

I still don't discount 720 silver and 430 gold early this week, though the balance of probablility has to be consolidate & correct. Back later today.

More dope on Gold & Silver (active thread)

October Surprise

Lots of people anticipate a pre-election market rally. Are you one of these lots of people?

Silver

Silver seems to be forming a flag. Wide Channel TA of the 15-minute linear chart says 7.20 &  the daily log chart says 7.30. There is quantum support @ 6.90. Following a break to the low 7's I expect a correction. The market will decide. One note of caution. On the 15-minute chart the flag peaks higher than the pole and looks mini H & S-ish - toppy. However I am told the daily chart will show a print of 6.98 when it is updated, i.e. pole is the highest point. This discrepancy is because the 15-min chart prints after every 15 mins and ignores prices between those sampling points except for the current 15-min section which is constantly updated. The daily chart from Stockcharts (symbol = $silver) integrates over all time. The discrepancy between the charts is most noticeable during periods of fleeting transients - 8.50 & 7.01 being prime examples.

Is nothing 4 real these days?

Has anyone decoded this message yet?

'Caring's not about caring - it's about doing what you believe in'

I AM NOT MAKING THIS UP!

 Also @ the Labour Party Conference Bono-head (who apparently negotiated a special tax exemption status for starving artists - like himself - in Ireland) was effusive in how we should spend our tax money helping the third world. He further enhanced his credibility by comparing Gordon Brown and Tony Blair to Lennon & McCartney. 

Lateral Thinker

Sunday Morning...

I will be disappointed if next week is dull. Later I have an interesting chart for you ..of .. you've guessed it - Silver!

Central banks in Russia hastens collapse

Bush Stomps Out of Press Conference Over Enron Ties

UK's Brown urges IMF to revalue gold for debt relief

Retro: UK Gold Sale Fury

Fri 9th June

Silver (above) is testing the BO from the bull flag right now. Wish it well. 

Footsie etc.

Thurs 8th June

Nae time to post this a.m. - but if you've been paying attention you will have spotted the break & backtest of the neckline spanning the base formation in silver. I did. Right now we are forming a bull pennant. MM to fill the first gap IMO.

 

Hope none of you are light MGN. It was obvious after SSRI that MGN would follow in the fast lane. Many are calling for a SM rally. Not me. I will post a really dirty looking FTSE chart tomorrow morning. How can PMs soar while SMs tank? That is the question that has been troubling me - coz that's what my charts have been saying all along. Deflation would take the PM's with it to some extent. Answer - BANKING CRISIS. Google 'Russia banking crisis'.

Wed 7th June

SMs below 200 ma's this a.m. Let's see how many more shares have to be nationalised to save the day...

<Another closet rant from the inimitable Ment aka G7. Hope it doesn't upset too many TA people (we have to learn to laugh at ourselves). 

Was surprised da boyz didn't hit silver harder yesterday. Don't forget - live silver is just a click away above the current day. Oh - and BTW BGO has a little H & S after yesterday whose MM would in fact close that gap. 

Tues 6th June

Silver is interesting this week. On my tablecloth chart is has just about broken out of the fan line from $8.40. Breakouts are also apparent in the Stockcharts 3 month log & linear charts (be quick - today is the last day you will be able to see the flagpole on the 3-month chart). Bear Flag or Launch Platform?....

Now with BGO & words - the updated 'Late June PM Overview' as sent to Gold Eagle.

Midsummer Metals part 1

(There used to be) '... only America. Now there is the homeland... and the rest of the empire.' - Bill Bonner

Monday 5th June

Updated

Late June PM Overview

OK I lied. Back in front of screen now & working. Nothing much has happened of course, as NY is closed. Also Vronsky wants some stuff on SSRI etc., so better get to it, eh? 

Personally I think it was Mr. Plum in the bedroom with a candlestick....

Scarlett 'to blame in dossier fiasco'

Remember David Kelly - whose death was blamed on the BBC?

Another Top Bioweapons Expert Killed

1984 watch

 After Patriot II comes the 'Freedom Tower' - the new WTC site development made possible by the demolition of the old asbestos-riddled white elephant back in '01.

Long weekend

Some analyses will appear here well before market opening. Today I have a studio to build, but will post more this evening. PM's are appearing piecemeal in  

Late June PM Overview

Meanwhile the H & S on this chart calls for a return to 85...

US Dollar

Friday 2nd July

Shortened trading due to 4th July holiday on Monday. Previous Monday holidays have not been good for silver - expectations may be low... 

July already!

Henmania over for another year. Nothing to add to silver chart as yet - so have been updating the Holistic News Agency (top bar). Also added a few more sites to the Tidy Box (Green filing cabinet second top bar of smaller icons). 

FWIW : SSRI seems to have broken back above H & S bottom neckline and was up into the close yesterday. Also silver has double-bottomed @ $5.77

Wed 30th June

'This means something'...

Tue 29th June

The Great Gonzo

Mon 28th June

Silver Canyon

Half-way stage (Wimbledon)

There are 4 inverse H & S currently in short-term play in the chart of silver. 1, 2 and 3 have broken out. 4 is offering temporary resistance. 3 was back-tested Friday. 2 has NOT been back-tested yet - maybe it won't have to be. I will be posting a large more detailed version of this chart before NY opens Monday.

Late June PM Overview

Fri 25th June

After watching Saul Campbell's second goal against the European Cup hosts being disallowed for absolutely no good reason it is obvious that it's not only markets and elections that are rigged. I would not be surprised to learn that Wayne Rooney's boot had been tampered with ... (just kidding - I think)

Out all day yesterday so missed big break in silver. Looks like AG's ear has been left behind. Now what?

 

Thurs 24th June

OE tomorrow. 

Big rush today - have some PM stock charts ready - will post tonight if time permits. 

Wed 23nd June

Its Wimbledon so it must be raining (it is). 

Has silver done enough to form AG's left ear (stage left that is?). Only if it does not want to test the breakout... 

Silver Spectacles

Catch 22nd June

WAYNE ROONEY ROOLZ

Silver action review. $6 (MM) was hit on Friday & Monday - engineering a double top. Now we get the pre-options expiration take-down as predicted here on CT. 

How long... has this been goin' on.....

Stock-gate was all about illegal shorting on the German bourse. 990N involves a German bank. Atta had spent time in Germany. The CIA & US accepted Nazis because of their 'expertise' post WW2. Bush's Grand-pappy helped Hitler. Our Royal Family is of German descent.  I'm getting a little ahead of myself here...

More on 990N

Ships at sea...

'Three UK vessels seized in Iran'

Mon 21st June

Silver Spectacles

The Sunday Times comedy section was not so funny this weekend. Looks like those carriers mean business...

Irwin Stelzer: Heed the market and look to the aircraft carriers

Banker in court after mystery drug deaths

Work till you’re 70 plan leaked

Weekend 20/21 June

Hommel is Insanely Bullish on Silver

A short selection of salient posts...

990N

Bush plans to screen whole US population for mental illness

A Tax on Everything?

This thread has legs...

Atta's voice?

July silver options expire end of month. My spread better says June 28th, but an email from a surfer says 24th June. The latter fits better with my TA

Fri 18th June

Thurs 17th June

Willie's latest - a must read... 

The Train Wreck & China

Silver - has been range-bound this week.

I notice Google and others are reporting an unprecedented attack on the internet this week - it made the BBC TV news. This, all those ships at sea, and the massive expansion of $M3. Hmmm...

Regular viewers may have discerned that I draw parallels with now, the early 70's and of course the crash of '29. Gold had two major run-ups in the 70's, culminating in the $850 peak everyone remembers, while silver hit $50. I wonder what those peaks would be in today's money? In particular what will they be in 2012's money...

The future from the perspective of the 70's..

Bear's Lair Report

Wed 16th June

In a rush today but I have been noticing more symmetries in the silver chart. There is a MM to about $6 still hanging in the air in this chart - only a possibility. Also could be the end of wave 4 (of C of II or IV). I will also have more to say about the Mines Management chart this week.

Tue 15th June

Kitco silver sure is a weird chart tonight

Aviary

Mon 14th June

Silver Superposition

Sun 13th June

Quote from another forum....

'TPTB have gone to the expense and trouble to acquire most of the media in the world. You can bet they are scheming on ways to censor the internet. It is the single largest loophole in their power structure.....'

Sat12th June

There are stories going around. Keep alert!

Mo Charts 2

Fri 11th June

There has been a change in the way we count ballots this time around. Instead doing it immediately after the vote (keeping journos and politicos up 'til the wee small hours) the count has been delayed until the morning. Presumably Labour's final vote will tally with the exit polls...

Blair punished at polling booths

Midnight mystery of car full of votes

British government to probe alleged postal ballot fraud

Postal vote 'doubles' turnout in trial regions

Postal ballot in chaos as one man gets 36 ballots

Thurs 10th June

Silver analysis as per yesterday still holds. Recommended (nay essential) reading : goldismoney.info and gold_eagle.com forums for debate on coming financial collapse. Links are thru this window>>>>>

It is time to draw back the curtains....

Wed 9th June

See first item on the agenda...

Rodin Research

Tue 8th June

Mon 7th June

Weekend

The Great Dictator

I found this a measured resource... 

Masons in the UK and other Homeland Truths

Hyperinflation? Deflation? Meteor Impact? False flag WMD events? Is silver going up or down?

I don't know. I try to prepare for most high-likelihood possible scenarios. Sometimes there are divergent paths each of which requires different responses. The trick is to identify the early warning signs in advance of them happening and have plans ready to swing into action triggered by certain confirmations. Meanwhile veteran analyst Clive Maund has pushed his boat out much further than I would have expected in this latest editorial on...

Gold, Oil and a Major Terrorist Attack

Hats off to him for (almost) telling it like it is. To help you read between HIS lines try www.whatreallyhappened.com for starters.

This may not be the red herring I first suspected it was ...

Alternative Energy Theory

Friday

Going sailing - having placed limit orders for either scenario - inverse H & S breakout or triple bottom wedge back-test

Thurs 3rd June

Outside the Circle

Wed 2nd June

Overheard @ the goldismoney.info forum....

'....In my local bank today around noon. I watched as the teller had to open the "big money" drawer for another teller. I saw a tremendous amount of US FRNs - MUCHO. I remarked how the FED made 240 billion new dollars over the past three weeks - she volunteered:

"Oh they are flooding us with new money - they really are." '

Silver on the cusp... Measured move down or upside breakout? You're on your own 'til this evening.

UPDATE Silver is really having a go at green this a.m. If the time-symmetrical H & S can't trigger the solid red H & S to support @ $5.80, the upwards reaction could be powerful. This is a strong formation that is pressing down, and only a stronger force can overcome it. I will be watching carefully and acting accordingly. Bye for now...

Flamin' June!

Raining this morning actually. Silver is sending out confusing signals which I am currently attempting to decode. It looks like we go much higher, but when and after how many twists & turns? More later today. I had an old home page uploaded in error for a day - which is why this warning is 24 hours late. Kind of ties in with the US fleet deployment story, though.

IS SOMETHING UP?

A view from the tablecloth. Remember green neckline comes from previous inverse Head & Shoulders pattern....

Rodin Research

Bank Holiday Weekend

A potential H & S is forming in  Silver. It could be a fake as we are currently supported by an up-trend channel and big green neckline. CDE and others are forming inverse H & S with gaps above.

China eyes Taiwan

More info on massive US carrier deployment

Silver was ambushed during the Easter holiday weekend when a continuation pattern proved proved to be a false flag. (There do seem to be a lot of false flag operations about these days). Another ambush may lie in wait for the unwary... but in which direction?

Huge US carrier group movement

'.... In September 2001, the US and UK "coincidentally ran what were then the largest war-games ever planned, Operations Bright Star and Swift Sword 2. At the same time, again "coincidentally", two US carrier groups arrived on station in the Gulf of Arabia. The resources needed to "respond" to the "surprise attack" just happened to be in place when needed, in operations planned months in advance. So now 7 carrier groups, half the entire US carrier fleet, are headed out to sea, destination unknown.' - M Rivero

(My Caps)

Fri 28th May

Evening Update

Silver left the circle while I was out being bored at a pointless meeting. Took a look below green and closed at 6.08 - on or just above. Am building a new map now - report in time for next weeks opening here. Meanwhile CDE closed a gap 7 THT bounced back. HIF.L up to 8.00 (pence that is) today in time for Gold eagle Forum stock-pickin' results. Hope to be near the top again. Have a good holiday weekend y'all. 

Gap 6 cents away.... (Update - gap 22 cents away now!)

Thurs 27th May

Today I will be mostly auditioning active monitors. Don't let silver fall out of the circle while I'm away, otherwise I might have to PAY for them.

Gofsky Financial Update

Wed 26th May

Evening update

The inner and outer circles are features of my large-scale paste-up - occasionally we have spiked into the 'tyre' of the 'wheel'. There is also the first hint of a linear up-trend emerging - more later...

BTW I put my stops a safe distance under the rim of the wheel. I will not say where - who knows who might be watching...

'The rounder we go the faster we get...'

Huge Silver Circle

We have a soft spot here for Jim Willie

Exporting Inflation & Crises

Mo Charts

Tues 25th May

I was thinking we might have to drop to small green neckline in order to back-test, but all we need to do is fill the flag below. This formation is bullish of course. MGN up 10% yesterday, good close on the PM indices.

Mon 24th May

UPDATE ALERT

Weekend Wind-up

Silver Circle

Mo Charts

Crucial classic text .... 

Dollar Chains

The north face of Hubbert's Peak .... 

Up to 100 years supply of oil left according to Dr. Maugeri

Maugeri's findings questioned

Fri 21st May

Mo Charts

Economists downplay US jobless claims rise

Thurs 20th May

Latest draft... 

Jim Willie - U$queeze

Silver manipulation is headline news

Clive Maund has turned bullish and expects majors to lead...

Time 2 Buy

I remain bullish and expect juniors to fly... just a hunch & mirrors.

CZN up 40% today.

Tax Story

Inflation chart

Wed 19th May

Evening Update....

Believe me, aside from the geopolitical mega-issues, this is the subject most concerning informed investors right now - the inflated dollar experiencing a possible counter-intuitive rally in a terminal debt bubble ...

Jim Willie - U$queeze

 

The larger H & S was turned back at the neckline on Monday on 1st attempt @ breakout. The smaller has not completely fulfilled.

Silver

Tues 18th May

Two charts - different highs! Never mind, back-testing is over.

 

Mon 17th May

If resistance @ 5.86 is taken out I expect a spurt for the following reasons...

Friday's silver projection is still not completely fulfilled - first we may or may not see a back-test of a couple of breakouts - Friday's inverse H & S neckline and/or the pink line in the chart below....

The deal is - if Fridays PO is achieved then the above inverse H & S (blue neckline) could take over (I know it looks tenuous - but I have reasons to believe it is not). That should shoot us into the first of the two big gaps down. We know they have to be filled sometime....

Weekend

Check out the Poll - and note that Scotland is a Labour heartland....

Piers Morgan’s gone ... but can Tony Blair be far behind?

Bush: That's right. I am now. And was then. And always shall be. Just ask Dick.

Cheney: That's right, Mr. President. You are the man who is in charge.....

Transcript of Bush/Cheney testimony 9/11

Roffey on Gold and Silver

I have added charts here in response to a message from the closet.... 

Let it RIP

THE 4 DERIVATIVE U.S. DICTATORS: SECRETS OF THE PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM

Fri 14th May Update Alert

It's a long shot, but....

Fri 14th May

PM have retreated back to strong resistance. Either they will come off at a pace, or will sink once current surface tension goes. For this to happen the dollar must rise in value. 

Q. What could cause a rally in a currency that can be inflated at will by a country with a debt bubble of millennial proportions and a shocking trade deficit (that would be further exacerbated by a rising dollar?). 

A. A dollar short squeeze - withdrawal of credit - rising interest rates. This would bankrupt leveraged homeowners causing a collapse in real estate and other assets joined at the hip to the dollar. For a while PMs might get caught up in the firestorm (until it is realised that gold and silver buy oil.) The holders and printers of dollars could then swoop on those assets and acquire them for a song in the ensuing fire-sale. 

Of course, the unredeemable debts of the US will eventually sink the dollar, but by then the controllers of the currency will be 100% in hard assets. And as close to 100% of hard assets as they can engineer. Neat.

Can the above happen?

A dollar short squeeze is so counter to the interests of Americans many argue it will be fought tooth and nail by the US government and Bernanke's famous printing press. This argument assumes that the US government has the interests of the American people at heart.

Think the SM has to be kept up until after the election? Think again. Check out the true credentials of the opposition. Greenspan's tenure is up in 6 weeks...

PS. Recently there has been a plethora of anti-gold rumours, innuendo and pseudo-facts which seem to be part of a co-ordinated campaign to cap the price of PMs. Could this be a case of the 'Buffet shorting the dollar' news that preceded this latest $ bear market rally? 

Silver squeezing into an apex..... 

>>>Silver<<<

Kurt Vonnegut: "addicts of fossil fuels, about to face cold turkey"

Thurs 13th May

There seems to be some doubt as to the perpetrators of that horrific beheading. This from a gold forum...

Fishy Circumstances and Flawed Timelines Surround American's Beheading

Wed 12th May

 Silver is taking a look @ falling resistance (a fan line from 8.40) - I expected a big move today either way (postponed) .... There is a sloping downwards inverse h & s on the 15min chart.. but another on the 6 month daily chart that calls for a drop of $2.50! That would seem ridiculous.

6 month chart

Tue 11th May

XHAUI

Mon 10th May

 TQ pointed out that the silver 15 year H & S bottom neckline is currently at around $5.35 on the monthly chart, which is a tad lower than where I was looking. Tomorrow first thing I must decide if the SMs go down further - made a profit today on a bet that has stood since beginning of year. What I liked today was the divergence - SM down, PM up. Except for those Canadians...

Testo

Weekend 8/9 May

Oil Catch 22

What gets me about this next awesome graphic is how it illustrates the grinding inevitability of seasonal rotation. I imagine rich powerful banking families riding on this wave, able to precipitate or delay (to some extent) transitions from one mode to the next, allowing themselves to re-position ahead of the masses in time to benefit from the next global crash or boom. Manipulation and insider dealing on a planetary scale makes a mockery of the expression 'the free market'...

The Kondratieff Wave

Gasoline price inverse H & S

Fri 7th May

HUI carnage in real time

Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks Index

Yesterday silver dallied in the green circle some, then it dropped to the red arrow depth, and it has just kept going. Makes me wonder if we are not going to get a Gann 50% price retracement here. (Though once folks figger out what silver was worth PRE oil, all that will change....)

$40 a barrel

This weekend's topic will be

Peak Oil

Thurs 6th May

The HUI mysteriously sold off 4 points in the last 15 minutes of trading after the major reversal UP on Tuesday. MGN is still rising though.

Lochui Monster

Turk's Take on the Buck

Wed 5th May

Off to teach studio design. Check out 

Grinninbarret's HUI

It would be ironic indeed if a mirror spike up to new highs were to be caused by the bulk of the TA community suddenly starting to look in the opposite direction. I have added more charts to Silver.wav As you can see it is building into a big work.

@ Vronsky! Silver.wav will be edited & texted up by the weekend.

4/5/4

Silver can turn on a dime. 

 >>>Silver<<<

Today in words & pictures ...

Short term silver

When time permits I am adding stuff to

Silver.wav

Bank Holiday Monday

Much of the UK is at the coast. Having broken out of the log channel (which shows up as a converging channel on the linear chart) Silver is now working on linear channel resistance. Looks like another decision day for the white metal....

 

May 1st

Silver.wav

 

Friday 30th April

Thursday 29th April

 At least I am short the SM! Silver had strong resistance previously @ $5.50 ish. More later - GATA go.

Wednesday 28th April

Silver Options Expiration

Everything broke down today while I was out. My shares are down, obviously, but my futures strategy protected me. The question remains - how far must we break down? Is the PM recovery anywhere in sight? More after I have digested today's action... meanwhile the closet guy and Nelson Hultberg (see Articles left) sum it up well.

Just B4 I go to the studio one observation - HIF.L up last two days on half a million volume. This morning - back down 7+% on less than £5000 worth of shares traded. Go figure. 

LATER THAT SAME DAY

Once a formation breaks down that's it. EOM.

Tuesday 27th April

Want to know one simple strong reason for my current $12 P.O. for silver?....

Dani on Silver

The Mother of the Mother

Meanwhile today the markets seem essentially directionless this afternoon. Glad I was too busy to watch the screen.

Monday 26th April

Picked up some SSRI cheaply (I think) on friday. And I've scaled up into 50% of my full weight silver futures position. Silver always was cheap, and it recently got a lot cheaper. Today is holding its breath before options expiration tomorrow. Today I am finalising a studio design. Tomorrow we start to build. 

This thesis has some merit. George J. Paulos & Sol Palha....

 Dollar short sqeeze

Though the dollar has been profoundly debased over the longer term, a short, sharp counter rally on a credit crunch is a possibility. You would think that with no gold standard in the way helicopter money would be thrown at the situation ad infinitum. But what if TPTB actually WANT an asset price collapse? After all THEY will have no trouble raising (printing) cash to buy up fire sale assets with FIAT holding a temporary inflated value (enforced by the credit squeeze/higher rates etc.). (In futures trading - to continue the 'short dollar' analogy - this would be the equivalent of stop-running.)  Once they have the rights to your assets they will care not WHAT happens to fiat currencies thereafter. You can bet they will already have the gold.

The logic goes thus

METHODOLOGY

Get the sheeple to take on debt up to the value of their inflated assets in return for debased dollars. Check out the hyperbolic growth of US Debt.

Raise interest rates forcing asset sales.

Cause glut of assets - forcing the sheeple into bankruptcy - in a deflationary spiral. See...

Shorting the DOW

Buy up assets at dimes or cents to the dollar.

RESULTS

Real wealth (things) goes from the sheeple > TPTB

The bankrupt sheeple are forced to pass their incurred debt down the generations. Their families are now indentured - into slavery. 

PS

I just found this quote from a 1934 civil service year-book called the 'Organizer' (it's a US publication) - 

"Capital must protect itself in every way...Debts must be collected and loans and mortgages foreclosed as soon as possible. When through a process of law the common people have lost their homes, they will be more tractable and more easily governed by the strong arm of the law applied by the central power of leading financiers. People without homes will not quarrel with their leaders. This is well known among our principal men now engaged in forming an imperialism of capitalism to govern the world...'

 A lovely weekend in the UK

If you are trying to claim credit for my idea, please note the spelling is Spectral (not Spectoral - that means something like 'pertaining to Phil Spector') 

oh - and it's Entropy, not 'entrophy', the degree of disorder or chaos in a system.

Spectral analysis started here. Meanwhile back at the cutting edge of charting we move on, sometimes into enlightenment.

(2 new charts today)

Indexync II

... us sound engineers know a thing or 2 about vibes. 

I see chartists are starting to use frames more. Note : what I sometimes used to call a banner chart is actually a ribbon chart. See GOLDOLLARAND for other definitions as applied to the Rodin system of Quantum Charting (in the appendix). I think all are spelt correctly....

Friday 23rd April

The tension in the markets is palpable

Well, it's been tough. And there are even more bearish calls out there. Not from me.

I have been waiting for the XAU to hit the neckline - and it has - right on cue - and the HUI hit LT support yesterday. Now there are COMPETING H & S formations engaged in a tug of war - the inverse ones from the bottoms, and the wrong way up (for us) one along the entire bull run of the HUI

What a wall of worry! The trouble is, the chart-painters did not reckon with this view of the XAU

The XAU has no H & S, just a perfectly completed and time-symmetrical Inverse H & S and test.

Yes - DROOY has that gap around 2.00 - but there is also a gap to the upside now. And as for SILVER ....

&';-{>

Live action in silver - faint signs of H & S bottom - no additional trades made as yet (10.17 UK time) DYODD ....

UPDATE see 27th April

Silver Shenanigans

Gold Shenanigans

Palladium tested it's gap closure this a.m. and is perhaps now set to go. (chart links below)

Thursday 22nd April

Palladium is making a bid to close the gap...

Weekly Palladium

3-Day Palladium

Good entry point? 

A re-cap of the last few days...

How I rode out the silver drop

GATA go - back later....

Well - did you place your palladium bids? I got mine filled. Check where the XAU is today...

Pot Pourri II

Wednesday 21st April

Well the big test has come suddenly. The HUI is back at long-term up-trend support. I think it will be leaving this point in a hurry. But in which direction? 

SCMC's HUI

Leveraged stocks performed badly today, for example ...

Mines Management - now testing the bottom of the wedge

Will try to say something tomorrow but might not have time. BTW check out Pot Pourri II - I've added some fascinating FTSE.

Tuesday 20th April

Yesterday was flat & boring but...

Early this morning the blue neckline (below) was violated. I actually became concerned earlier - when the price hit the top corner of the green time-box and drifted down - that was my launch point.  Whenever a potentially bullish formation breaks down it's time to back off. I'm back to a watching brief in silver. I would rather miss some upside action than take a bath! 

Monday 19th April

Nothing is certain but this looks good....

...be wary of spikes down intra-15 mins. These do not appear on the above chart but will affect futures trading. PS I should warn you that we may be in wave b of an abc correction - however -

1) The c wave often ends above the a wave in a bull - especially a raging bull.

2) I can see this forming a nice cup & handle over the next week or so...

Live action

Silver

New Charts...

Indexync II

GFI added to...

2nd Blue Period

Weekend 17/18th April

I'll get around to drawing an icon for this new section....

Chartists Corner

FTSE

I agree with this article's conclusions

Friday 16th April

Late evening report

I can't believe my eyes - HUI & metals flat but my portfolio up quite a lot. How? Well, for a start, My .TO's made up a good bit of ground (Listed below a few days ago). 

BWR.TO spectracular

Most of the US listed shares flat to up except - GPXM - I have NEVER known a share like it - it ALWAYS seems to move in opposition to the other PMs (I have a moderate position). But the real eye-opener was MGN - which forcefully broke back up through its wedge. What a pity it is only 20% of my PM stock portfolio (by value)! 

All of the above tells me - the tests are starting to confirm future direction in PMs. This a.m. I received a very detailed email from an international group doing Fibonacci analysis warning me that silver had not bottomed yet, with charts and commentary to 'prove' it.  MGN, my Ag bell-weather and ultra SSRI seems to disagree.

My portfolio was up yesterday - except that laggard HIF.L. It still has a little work to do before it hits the wall of mirrors....

Hidefield

Silver - support @ 6.84, resistance @ 7.13. Expect intra - 15 min spikes above and below .

Thursday 15th April

If I were unscrupulous and wanted more, say MGN, I might post articles saying how it was failing some test and it was time to get out. The price would fall, and I would pick up stock more cheaply. It is up to you to decide what Rothschild and the Chinese are up to when they say they are letting go of gold and silver respectively, and on consecutive days.

I have posted more charts and commentary today, including updates to previous charts. 

Pot Pourri II

Wednesday 14th April

Wow. What a day. This could be a turning point - PM stocks, PM indices and metals are testing breakouts. Ag and MGN would appear to have overshot. Ag did turn at a key Fibo and Gann level, though. DROOY, Gold and the HUI are all at test points overnight. I have added more charts above.

Tuesday 13th April

News about the Chinese selling silver was enough to spook the market yesterday. Silver has had a great rise, and profits have been made. Today I discern the opening of a new corrective down-channel and have scaled back my silver futures to a watching brief. 

Easter Monday

Rolling Stone

Back from a day out and silver down below $8. Seemed to have been arrested @ 7.87, the previous recent low. Another thing I re-learned at the Gann seminar was that the faster they fall, the faster they rise. We will see.

'This could develop into inverse H & S - first chance since flag started to form'  ... from Friday's commentary. Maybe even 2 or 3. We will see.

PS Just spotted it - if Pink = a Channel expect a dip to $8.00 where lower pink rail (not drawn) intersects the horizontal bottom of the flag (also not drawn). There is a symmetrical spike going into the first pink shoulder. Good luck, I'm outa here...

Golden Decades

Easter Weekend

Gang! I am doing some exciting research into the performance of gold stocks from 1929 up 'til the present day. I have uncovered some astonishing stuff. It will take time to prepare all the analysis but I'll be opening up a folder into which I will be popping charts and commentary starting tonight. Big thanx to Ted & Rita. P. S. I'm not done with Long John Silver yet either...

(Sorry if some of the pics keep dropping off - it's er Site Maintenance. Yes - that's it....)

Silver Dollar

Good Friday

For WD Gann a 50% drop in price was a key level for big reversals. I bought CZN.TO yesterday at half-price. I had reduced FAN.TO to 1/3 position when it was solidly in 3 digits, but doubled up @80 -another nearly 50% downer) MGN is testing it's wedge breakout. Not many of you sold. 

Silver is up today (bet you thought it wasn't trading). 

My current holdings (always subject to change) are

ISA - RDV.TO QRL.TO ZMR.TO GQM.TO APG.TO TVI.TO FAN.TO THT.TO BWR.TO CZN.TO

UK - HIF.L AVM.L POG.L APF.L GOL.L HEV.L

US - MGN CALVF.OB GPXM.OB VGZ GSS BGO MNG GFI DROOY KGC CDE WTZ

Mostly I take a position in stocks. I also play futures on metals and stocks in real time.

This could develop into inverse H & S - first chance since flag started to form....

Silver

Thursday April 8th

A Gold Theory Buy Signal?

Looks like Reality is winning over Fantasy in the silver pits - even with the newly skimmed margin rules the shorts can't get it down. Meanwhile the average Western consumer's debt delusions of economic well-being grow more fantastic each day.

Wednesday April 7th

Attended a Gann seminar in London yesterday. I will be back for more...

Tuesday's action went pretty much as predicted in my absence. Only bummer was my ISA cheque doesn't clear 'til today - and none of my targets lost ground Tuesday - quite the reverse. That's a few shares less I'll be bagging. Drat. Still - a drop in the ocean compared to the avalanche of profits expected. (How's that for a mixed metaphor - 7 - that's how NOT to write!)

Tuesday April 6th

Silver is simply not fulfilling downside projections made on a technical basis - It has NOT completed measured moves from various H & S over the past 24 hours - including a symmetrical-ish double top. The formation NOW forming is another wedge/flag with fairly horizontal support and falling resistance. Looks like another breakout to the upside in the offing....  Sorry - must be off to ring my broker...

Monday April 5th

One more day until I can buy more .TO's in my ISA. 

Now I could well be wrong - silver's bullishness has been taking even a silver bull like myself by surprise, but the following is a possibility - a looming H & S in silver is setting up a test and go for the 9-month neckline. If you are on margin be careful here - around $7.60-ish could temporarily be in sight. Two obvious measured moves are shown - I expect we will know by tomorrow's open if either have come to pass. I will be putting buy orders in a bit above $7.70. I will have more bullish things to say about silver later in the week.

I notice the neckline is now violated, and is now being tested from below. If this H & S does NOT produce a  correction, then that is even more super-bullish for silver. It means silver is defying technicals and just going UP!

HUI & Shoulders (Updated)

Special Report

Disinformation is the stuff of business. Rothschild used it to make a ton of money after the Battle of Waterloo - by spreading a rumour the English were losing - causing their 'scrip' to plummet in value, allowing his agents to clean up. In fact, his top-flight carrier pigeon squadron had already informed him of an English victory. Now elections are nigh in Angloamerica. Co-incidentally the lid seems to be blowing off many manholes - silver is rocketing exactly (take note Jason!) as I predicted - from fundamentals and charts. Other metals and commodities too are rising fast. It's the Inflation I warned you about back in spring 2003 when all the talk was about - deflation. HAH! Another smoke screen. 

The lid seems to be blowing off the 911 manhole cover up too. As bits of incriminating evidence come to light, manhole cover stories and distractions must be found. Here are a few conflicting 'truths'  from the past couple of days. 

S Arabia 'real reason for war'

Pay attention 9/11 Commission: The real reason Bush dropped the ball on Bin Laden was ENRON -- A BuzzFlash Reader Contribution

White House Withholds Clinton-Era Papers From 9/11 Commission

Found! The 911 'Stand Down Order'

Fmr. FBI Translator: White House Had Intel On Possible Airplane Attack Pre-9/11

Footprints of New 9/11 Seen in Markets Says Top Analyst

I suggest you ignore latest reports, and look back over the evidence that has been out there for years. 

It's the Weekend again (don't have to worry about margin for 2 days!)

Having spent a year ploughing a furrow through the charts using frames, matrices, sinusoidals and spectra, I went back to basics to answer a few questions about Head & Shoulders and Cup and Handle patterns. I have seen definitions of H&S which said measure the distance from the centre of the head to the neckline. I have also seen a definition which says measure from the LOWEST POINT to the neckline. This I think is more precise.

Head & Shoulders

This site also has some helpful info on Cup & Handles.

Cup & Handle

To cut to the quick, the HUI Zaphod does indeed therefore portend new highs and soon...

HUI

And this is a textbook C&H in the making (I'm sure there are many others) once the wedge BO hits the rail connecting the 2 peaks. The cup is nicely elliptical, & the emerging handle is exactly 1/2 depth of cup, from what will be the BO angle...

MGN

The fog has lifted. It's all systems go.

I think...

Friday 2nd April

What a day! The $8.40+ target as per 9 month silver H & S was hit - about a week earlier than I expected. I was out at the time because a BRAND NEW 64-bit computer had its FIREWIRE connector pushed into the mother***** (board)  THE WRONG WAY ROUND. Took out the MLAN inputs of TWO Yamaha 01X's before a REALLY HELPFUL GUY at DIGITAL VILLAGE called NICK (HI There!) traced the error. Thanks Nick. 

Anyways the GOON who WIRED that computer tnorfotkcab cost me Stef & Jon DAYS of frustration and also some REAL MONEY. Now where is that small claims lawyer's number....

Actually I don't know what will happen on Monday. If I figure it out over the weekend I will post AFTER I have taken my positions. Remember MNMM.OB? It's been re-issued on AMEX as MGN (not to be confused with  MNG). Anyway it hit an all-time high today after a breakout. Interesting.

Mines Management

April Fools

What a phrase!

"Financial Anguish"

Wed 31st March

Pot Pourri II

Tue 30th March

 

Mon 29th March

HUI & Shoulders

Sun 28th March

Good as Gold

Sat 27th March

James Sinclair has identified an anomalous footprint in the markets - similar to what happened to airline stock before 9/11- the dollar and gold rising together. His interpretation is that a major terrorist event may be being anticipated in Europe following the almost too-overt assassination of the leader of Hamas. His site URL is behind the Window On the World, stage left from where you are sitting....

James says the technicals do not support a large increase in gold, but longer term 'mirror' charts are painting an explosive picture - VGZ and THT being obvious examples - not to mention the HUI & DROOY. If the Jack-in-the-Box of geonomic derivatives that have kept the global economy running on borrowed time, money and resources is about to be suddenly opened, it will cause near vertical movements in markets. Try to be on an up elevator if it happens. Pray it does not.

Fri  26th March

Today IS options expiration for some gold and silver contracts. The battle lines are 420 & 415 in gold and 750 in silver.

Thurs 25th March

A 4-day H & S formation looms over the silver chart - but the MUCH bigger inverse H & S that has just completed will prevent it producing the full downside of the measured move to 7.3 - if the blue  neckline holds....

Breakout

Silver Chart

Wed 24th March

Well - silver DId break out of the pennant - but the temptation to re-test that H & S breakout proved too strong...

Brown Wednesday

Tue 23rd March

Watch this space

Mon 22nd March

A brief  tour around my ISA account - all '.TO's'...

New this week : ZMR.TO

Will fill you in later when I spend my April 6th cash allocation....

Black Monday

Due to circumstances beyond my control I have been off the air this weekend. Looks like Friday's post (below) showing Thursday's closing silver H & S bottom completion was bang on - $8+ here we come...

Fri 19th March

How Good is That?

UK Endowment Scandal - Could this pop the housing bubble?

Thu 18th March

What can I say - apart from CZN all going according to plan... watch out for more upside. You must admit the VGZ prognosis in Blue Period was pretty good....

Also I think GSS is headed back to its primary ribbon - at $12 +

MNMM to list on AMEX. Someday this stock will launch again. Too much silver not to.

the .TOs have been under-performing this week - Good! Only three more weeks to End of Accounting Year & another ISA allowance. Heh.

Wed 17th March

Calamares

YEN drama

Tues 16th March

Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction...

'Dynamite Is Everywhere' In Financial System Now

Passing the Buck before TSHTF...

Greenspan hits Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac

Fannie Mae's $25 billion 'gambling' loss comes to light...

Freddie Mac Lobbyist Leaving Amid Inquiry

Decision day for the PMs?

Ideas of March

Monday 15th March

TVI took a beating today. I expect a dramatic turnaround soon. The HUI shed 3% despite metal strength. Those of us with an ear to the ground have been expecting this - tomorrow could be interesting. I'm hanging tough - buying even. 3 more weeks until I can top up my ISA - will the PM shares hold off launching until then? It's nip & tuck...

Tan Range up 4% today on news of a US listing. Was charted in The March of Gold

Weekend 14th March

Richard Russell thinks the SM top is in.

Market Force

Friday 12th March

If Sinclair is right we should be through this turbulence by Tuesday morning. Silver has closed over $7 for the first time in about 20 years! However it is still ridiculously cheap. I expect the rate of appreciation to accelerate as more people become aware of the astonishing silver story. I really do think the SM's are rolling over here (I know, I've said that before!). 

Thursday 11th March

I suggest you read what Jim Sinclair has said about the apparent H & S in the Shultz gold index and Gold (the metal). Me? As I said yesterday on the G E forum 'I think basically we go up from here'.

TPTB can't paint the charts I'm looking at.....

Tuesday 9th March

HUI news

Monday 8th March

2nd Blue Period

Sunday 7th March

The March of Gold

Saturday 6th March

For those who remember Darby Slick....

Silver Rabbit

I meant to post this article myself, just ran out of week...

Eddie Gofsky on Bubbles

Who owns South Africa?

Banksters

USA Out of business

The Great Inflation Train Wreck

Fri 5th March

Good day all round. Have a nice weekend. I've posted enough charts this week & have other fish to fry...

Thu 4th March

We have a new poster @ G-E : 'Texasgold' : who has made an immediate impression with his cutting analysis of the global bond market which shows a coming implosion. I suggest you check it out here >>>>>>

Topics du Jour

Wed 3rd March

Sorry - can't chart silver today - but you can here...

Silver Chart

Tuesday 2nd March

Trace Elements

Enron II : Parmalat decoded by EIR

'The Economist' on Fraudulent Fiat

US national debt tops $US7 trillion for first time

Sun 29th Feb

New on HNA (Holistic News Agency - see top bar) - Grand Pre on Alex Jones - plus scroll down left sidebar for some red-hot Skolnick<<<<

Fri 27th Feb

Leap Month

Thurs 26th Feb

Back after server maintenance (about which I was given no warning). Have some charts lined up for you including important short-term gold & silver observations - will try to post tomorrow pm. Goodness - silver IS getting volatile. Do you think maybe COMEX are having DELIVERY PROBLEMS? 

Turning Point

Tue 24th Feb

HUI've Been Framed

Mon 23rd Feb

23 Feb 2004 commentary

Sat/Sun 21st/22nd Feb

Big day tomorrow - I will be monitoring the action carefully.

Pot Pourri

Greenspan testimony points to deepening US fiscal crisis

Oil Production in 42 Countries

Fri 20th Feb

Silver Update

UK a.m. report. The dollar bounce is still with us. So far it is a pretty feeble affair. I doubt it will even reach the levels shown by the pink curve on the Pyramid Selling chart in GOLDOLLARAND. Tuesday next week a tranche of silver options mature. It is rumoured that this time the result will be that much physical (as opposed to virtual) silver is going to be demanded. It remains to be seen what happens on the COMEX, but the margin for silver (and copper) has just been raised, in anticipation of - what?

Last 2 days saw PMs give up this week's gains. FAN.TO hit new highs yesterday, becoming my third largest holding in the process. 

Tue 17th Feb

Busy charting yesterday. Today went to London to meet Falcor III of Gold-Eagle & Treasure Chests. Thanks for the great meal, pristine company, stimulating chat & goodie bag! Was surprised to hear that Capt. Hook is also into HIF.L. I thought I had that one all to myself....

HEV.L popped up last few days after I had lost patience with it. I'm back in with a smaller allocation at a higher price. Grrr. Trying to work out right now when to add to silver futures.

Silver not too shabby this week so far. My stocks are up - hope yours are too. 

Sun 15th Feb

We don't do Valentine's Day here. Pick the bones out of this....

GOLDOLLARAND

Fri 13th Feb

Today I shall be mostly looking for a new vehicle.... 

Thurs 12th Feb

MNMM, SSRI & CDE pick up the scent.... 

Wed 11th Feb

CZN.TO makes its move...

Bush seeks $1 trillion debt boost

Tue 10th Feb

updated...

Spectracula

HIF.L probing 2-year high this a.m.

Is this a prime candidate for an island reversal of HUMUNGOUS proportions?

Mon 9th Feb

In here you will find why I bought more GSS and VGZ today.

Blue Period

 I sold WHT on some story about insider selling flagged up on the G-E forum. I don't want to be left with a bag. Now WHT will probably explode from here - but so will the stocks my proceeds will be invested in tomorrow. HIF.L is going to have to work hard to meet my Valentine's Day target of a spike down to 5P. My upside targets still stand.

Sat 7th Feb

All systems go?

Friday 6th Feb

Today was big excitement. We have breakout ahead of the G7. Looks like we are headed for a triple-top. But will it be a triple-top breakout too? I have updated UAXAU - and have even more to put into it. Worth a look IMHO>>>>

Bought some more BWR.TO today. Irresistible chart. Shoulda bought even more THT.TO. I'm not going to chase it. Am now 98% PM loaded. 250+ here we come (I hope).

Competitive Currency Devaluation - Marshall Auerback

Thurs 5th Feb

Yesterday was a big yawn. Noticed THT.TO up 10% though. Only another 9990% to go....

Some more symmetry charts will appear here over the next week or so.

evening update - only another 9970% to go now.

Sunday 7th March

The March of Gold

Saturday 6th March

Silver Rabbit

I meant to post this article myself, just ran out of week...

Eddie Gofsky on Bubbles

Who owns South Africa?

Banksters

USA Out of business

The Great Inflation Train Wreck

Time was I'd 'a' had the above on CT but I am simply overloaded with work. 

Fri 5th March

Good day all round. Have a nice weekend. I've posted enough charts this week & have other fish to fry...

Thu 4th March

We have a new poster @ G-E : 'Texasgold' : who has made an immediate impression with his cutting analysis of the global bond market which shows a coming implosion. I suggest you check it out here >>>>>>

Topics du Jour

Wed 3rd March

Sorry - can't chart silver today - but you can here...

Silver Chart

Tuesday 2nd March

Trace Elements

Enron II : Parmalat decoded by EIR

'The Economist' on Fraudulent Fiat

US national debt tops $US7 trillion for first time

Sun 29th Feb

New on HNA (Holistic News Agency - see top bar) - Grand Pre on Alex Jones - plus scroll down left sidebar for some red-hot Skolnick<<<<

Fri 27th Feb

Leap Month

Thurs 26th Feb

Back after server maintenance (about which I was given no warning). Have some charts lined up for you including important short-term gold & silver observations - will try to post tomorrow pm. Goodness - silver IS getting volatile. Do you think maybe COMEX are having DELIVERY PROBLEMS? 

Turning Point

Tue 24th Feb

HUI've Been Framed

Mon 23rd Feb

23 Feb 2004 commentary

Sat/Sun 21st/22nd Feb

Big day tomorrow - I will be monitoring the action carefully.

Pot Pourri

Greenspan testimony points to deepening US fiscal crisis

Oil Production in 42 Countries

Fri 20th Feb

Silver Update

UK a.m. report. The dollar bounce is still with us. So far it is a pretty feeble affair. I doubt it will even reach the levels shown by the pink curve on the Pyramid Selling chart in GOLDOLLARAND. Tuesday next week a tranche of silver options mature. It is rumoured that this time the result will be that much physical (as opposed to virtual) silver is going to be demanded. It remains to be seen what happens on the COMEX, but the margin for silver (and copper) has just been raised, in anticipation of - what?

Last 2 days saw PMs give up this week's gains. FAN.TO hit new highs yesterday, becoming my third largest holding in the process. 

Tue 17th Feb

Busy charting yesterday. Today went to London to meet Falcor III of Gold-Eagle & Treasure Chests. Thanks for the great meal, pristine company, stimulating chat & goodie bag! Was surprised to hear that Capt. Hook is also into HIF.L. I thought I had that one all to myself....

HEV.L popped up last few days after I had lost patience with it. I'm back in with a smaller allocation at a higher price. Grrr. Trying to work out right now when to add to silver futures.

Silver not too shabby this week so far. My stocks are up - hope yours are too. 

Sun 15th Feb

We don't do Valentine's Day here. Pick the bones out of this....

GOLDOLLARAND

Fri 13th Feb

Today I shall be mostly looking for a new vehicle.... 

Thurs 12th Feb

MNMM, SSRI & CDE pick up the scent.... 

Wed 11th Feb

CZN.TO makes its move...

Bush seeks $1 trillion debt boost

Tue 10th Feb

updated...

Spectracula

HIF.L probing 2-year high this a.m.

Is this a prime candidate for an island reversal of HUMUNGOUS proportions?

Mon 9th Feb

In here you will find why I bought more GSS and VGZ today.

Blue Period

 I sold WHT on some story about insider selling flagged up on the G-E forum. I don't want to be left with a bag. Now WHT will probably explode from here - but so will the stocks my proceeds will be invested in tomorrow. HIF.L is going to have to work hard to meet my Valentine's Day target of a spike down to 5P. My upside targets still stand.

Sat 7th Feb

All systems go?

Friday 6th Feb

Today was big excitement. We have breakout ahead of the G7. Looks like we are headed for a triple-top. But will it be a triple-top breakout too? I have updated UAXAU - and have even more to put into it. Worth a look IMHO>>>>

Bought some more BWR.TO today. Irresistible chart. Shoulda bought even more THT.TO. I'm not going to chase it. Am now 98% PM loaded. 250+ here we come (I hope).

Competitive Currency Devaluation - Marshall Auerback

Thurs 5th Feb

Yesterday was a big yawn. Noticed THT.TO up 10% though. Only another 9990% to go....

Some more symmetry charts will appear here over the next week or so.

evening update - only another 9970% to go now.

Wed 4th Feb

IMO we are in the doldrums as per HUI reflection (see earlier post). The pressure is off for a few days - a little light trading around the edges - but the most important thing for me is 

1) To be able to either see or catch the next move up because there is a BUCKETLOAD to be made with good timing

2) To test various stocks using quantum geonomic TA (a combination of mirrors, frames, waves, spectroscopy and fractals - stuff DA BOYZ don't know too much about) for baggability. I would rather have 10 50-baggers and have 50% go belly-up than 10 5-baggers. Do the math. I like stocks that ebb in and out of liquidity - once the bull takes hold these stocks will become 100% liquid and gain their 'liquidity premium' spurs - a higher (probably frighteningly higher) value. Incredibly there seem to be plenty still around. (see appendix)

3) To get prepared - no panic moves - no uncomfortable margins - get strategies in place & cash in the right accounts

4) To post up whatever I have found out (though maybe not all the details of analysis methods used - gotta keep da boyz guessing)

Because the PM train might leave for higher ground at any moment I will not be less than 80% invested. This despite my belief that we will see one more drop - by maybe 10-15%

Tomorrow I intend to arrange to convert my remaining physical Au into silver - a round ton of the stuff seems kind of symmetrical. I'm with Ted. Jason is pretty good too. Jason took Ted to task last week over the COMEX default issue - and much as I love Ted, Jason was right. COMEX must eventually default.

(My May Ag longs will be converted into SSRI and DROOY again as soon as the time seems right for this reason.)

I have just started to take certificated delivery of shares (outside my ISA) that I intend to hold over time, not trade. A bird in the hand..

Appendix

There are 50 baggers available now and most probably 
fall into one of these categories

1) silver stocks
2) SA juniors
3) un-pumped Candians, and other, small-cap stocks

There are two kinds of charts - new companies and old. Newbies are hard to read, but co's with a history say to me

1) not fly-by-night operation
2) have made it thru the hard times therefore resilient

Some co's with long-term flats have exploded. In my recent past there was MNMM, FAN.TO, TVI.TO, and some of the HUI components.

MNMM I bought PURELY on FA - there was no chart to speak of.

FAN & TVI were pure chart acquisitions. These 2 exhibit JUST the formations I am looking for - either a wide potentially symmetrical valley (TVI) or a huge falling wedge (FAN). TA of this sort requires a perspective view

Par example.....

THT.TO & HIF.L - purely chart acquisitions - yet to take off....

CA:THT

tells me nothing. But the Stockcharts weekly (THT.TO)
is VERY revealing (see earlier post)

And while we are on the subject of mirrors...

http://www.contrarianthinker.com/Smokin9.jpg

Does anyone know if this stock has a sister?

Tuesday 3rd Feb

Yesterday silver hit its 50% $6.00 Fibonacci support level. Enough retrace already, or is there more? Will work on it. BTW the HUI 'Mirror' charts are constantly being refined by me - I will try to get the current version up later today - it shows we may be quite close lift-off, though I expect one more dip first.

Monday 2nd Feb

The big news today was silver getting trashed. The silver shares, however, largely shrugged this off by close of play. Perhaps they know too much?.....

Sunday 1st Feb

Smokin' Mirrors

I will have more to say about the above research later.

Friday 30th Jan

All quiet on the Western Front ahead of G7. Dollar bounce (USDX) in jeopardy after some unruly US economic stats. Nonetheless I expect it will get above the 50ma Rubicon it has yet to cross. Wise words warn us to prepare for a bout of $350 gold. I doubt that very much. But a little threatening pullback into the $390 region might shake some GSS & BGO shares into my waiting basket. We will see. Keep an eye on the site on Sunday - much should be revealed...

Postscript

The MNMM story - mysteriously dipped from $6.31 to under $6 at close of play - only to bounce up to $6.50 in after-hours trading.

MNMM

Poem

Silver is going to fly. 

I need some SSRI. 

SSRI have their eye 

on MNMM (allegedly)

Thursday 29th Jan

Heavy snow in much of the UK caused the usual havoc last night. Yesterday SMs tanked, silver was up. Today the PM complex was hit. We are now it seems about 1/2 - 2/3 of the way through this so-called correction. CDE filled the $5.30 gap pointed out earlier. Still waiting for GSS....

Looks like the HUI will chop up again tomorrow, but don't rule out a final swoon next week before....VROOM. And watch out for signs of silver short-covering in February. 

Out of the Blue

NY Coffee!

VIRUS ALERT! FAST SPREADING WORM

W32.Novarg.A@mm is a mass-mailing worm. The worm will arrive as an attachment with a file extension of .bat, .cmd, .exe, .pif, .scr, or .zip. The worm also contains functionality to perform as a proxy server. It listens on all TCP ports in the range 3127-3198. The worm will perform a DoS starting on February 1, 2004. On February 12, 2004 the worm has a trigger date to stop spreading. Microsoft offers a large reward for information leading to the arrest of worm writers.

New check on Japanese bad debts

US budget deficit reaches $500bn

Tuesday 27th Jan

US PM stocks are looking good! HUI did give up some into the close, though. Silver responded to the inverse H&S that I pointed out on the FOREX chart at the end of last week. Despite today's positive action I think we may have one more short sharp pull-back before the REAL launch of the spring offensive. However - better to suffer the pull-back than to miss the next up-move. All IMHO of course.

Monday 26th Jan 

UK PM stocks are looking good - POG.L gapped up 11% and I missed it!, HIF.L consolidating a flag (7.63 now). 

HIF.L

POG.L now at LT uptrend resistance - either it flies from here or it will have to 'fill the gap'. Watch out for signs of an island reversal....

POG.L

TVI & FAN took a hit today, and the SM pump is in full speed ahead mode and damn the torpedoes... I think a short sharp bout of retracements may be upon us after all, but the recovery will be swift and very dramatic... I wouldn't sell at the bottom (when/if BGO is under 2.5).

Sunday 25th Jan 

http://www.rabbie-burns.com/index.cfm

We had a fine time at our Burn's Night - I suffered for it later - and the web site was down in sympathy! Some problem at the hosting service. 

Saturday 24th Jan

Today I will be mostly doing accounts & filing tax forms.

http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?

Friday 23rd Jan 

Everything except the $ drifted down. The PM bears are still in the ascendant. Gold may have to test $395 etc. IMO May silver should hit $6.70 next week. If U want to bail out, that might be a good time. There are quite a few updates in several of the Charticles below.

FAN:TO up to $1.20! Nice. HIF:L rise has stalled - hope it resumes next week. GOL.L up 6% days after I sold. Rats.

Thursday 22rd Jan evening summary.

We have been chopping sideways this week -with a few swings & roundabouts. Thursday we saw an end-of-day PM sag. I hear even Harry Schultz is calling USDX 92 and a PM correction. A higher USD might hit $gold, but the SA's operate in Rand.

My silver 2 cents....

Charts not Art Vol.4

Top PM journalist for promoting gold?

Calandra Quits

TREASURY RENEGES ON 30 YEAR BOND HOLDERS?

Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has told Saudi Arabians they should sell oil for gold, not U.S. dollars, to avoid being "short-changed" by a decline in the U.S. currency.

Tuesday wassup? Everything except Ag physical. Hope U noticed....

More Charts from Monday ... some resolved today - see 'island reversal'

US Listed Silver Stocks

US Listed Gold Stocks

rodin & smsc

...I have updates for some charts & more to post - but I'm knackered! 

Goodnight.

Turning Point

Gold correction analysed by James Turk

In The Black

Charts not Art Vol.3

mmmm... - Silver

Jason Hommel's Report

19/1/4 

NY Closed but Canadians showing profit so far. Silver spiked down to Fibo support level as posted in Turning Point ...

Chart

18/1/4

OK Here's the vibe from the GE Forum - Saturday started with some bullish prognostications - but by evening the bears had the upper hand. The consensus seems to be - a final SM blow-off as the $ bounce continues and gold & PM shares correct - Gold to anywhere from 350 - 395, HUI to about 185 (that would correspond to the 175 spike down I warned about in the autumn of last year - since it was to a rising S/R line.) No -one seems sure about silver. So let's examine the evidence....

Turning Point

US$ plunge could lead to full-blown financial crisis

Fr 16th Jan

Nothing happened today.  Go out & have a good weekend. By Sunday some clues will be posted here - in time for trading.

Thurs 15th Jan

Silver closed right on 38% Retracement support. HUI on 219 and XAU on 98. In other words as I predicted yesterday. SSRI bounced off strong support, DROOY was up on the day and HIF.L is now at 7.38 with volume. We took it on the chin and are still long & strong. Into battle tomorrow! See Charts not Art Vol. 3

Wed 14th Jan

May I direct you to these charts. 

last week rodin HUI

this week smsc HUI

The 230-ish bounce is being predicted now by savvy posters on the Gold Eagle forum. More when I return from work....

(later)

ARGHH! Silver down a lot! Looks like we have the 230 retrace. Should (hopefully) launch from here. I am rebuilding the balance of my DROOY futures as we have completed a 38% retracement of the last move. More at the end of the day.

End of day summary

Possible scenarios...

1) Open up & away tomorrow (Least likely IMO)

2) Lower POG/POS causes gap down in HUI to 220-225 Fibo support & XAU to 98 (to complete 50% whole move retracement from 68%). (Most likely IMO)


XAU by Alan Quinnel

Rally from there. Or - 

3) Grind down to bottom support to complete symmetrical HUI pattern.

http://www.contrarianthinker.com/HUIGE.2.gif

GSS does not look so good - gap at 4.80 now in range - let's hope it's a quick spike...especially as I have some.

Monday & Tuesday TA watch

Mon TVI & FAN up Tues Down. End of message. Churning really. Big news I suppose was SM tanking in response to Greenspan's comments on Euro etc. DROOY might do a fibo retrace or shrug off today & launch tomorrow. I tried to re-scale a position late in the day but the internet was 2 slow. BTW MNMM was UP of down Tuesday - usually a leading indicator.

IMF sees collapse of the dollar as real possibility

I think Vialls is wrong here...

Kennington Palace?

Sterling at 11-year high against the dollar

Poor U.S. Jobs Data Send Dollar Sharply Lower

 'Accounting Problems' In Major US Economic Indices

Dealing with Deficits and Debt - Endgame analysis

Former Treasury Secretary O'Neill Calls Bush a 'Blind Man'

Lowering interest rates all round while inflating global FIAT money supply - what with BOJ inventing trillions of YEN just to stem the dollar's descent things are looking a bit terminal for the value of FIAT. No wonder the CRB index is rising. 

The European Central Bank on Thursday signalled its growing unease about the rapid appreciation of the euro as politicians and business leaders called for lower interest rates to offset the surging single currency.

Oil crisis anyone?

Shell makes shock cut in oil reserves estimate

Weekend Commentary

Silver triangles (prediction from mid 2003) - going according to plan.

http://www.contrarianthinker.com/Chart26.jpg

Biggies for me today were Silver & DROOY futures (again) and FAN.TO +28.41% TVI.TO +17.31% - two of my favourite (and often referred to) stocks. The LT charts of these 2 are spectacular. Picked up some BWR.TO & GRS.TO today for my ISA. En route I looked up FAN.TO again (in which I have a decent holding) and thought it's chart looked best of all (FAN.TO +28.41% Friday). I see Hidefield HIF.L has broken out of a triangle on large weekly volume....

With SSRI doing so well I would have thought MNMM would have caught fire by now. It's a cheaper way to buy Ag in the ground even than SSRI. There is little volume right now around MNMM - perhaps it is not a big enough market cap to attract the institutions that have been ploughing into SSRI & PAAS. That probably explains it. If so - when it does light up - watch out!

Thurs 8th January

HUI up again. I wonder if we will get a spike down tomorrow to 232 - just to shake off the last of the nervous nellies before we head over 300 ... if so I will be LOADING UP on SSRI futures at a presumably bargain price. Might add some more DROOY also. Falcor III posted a nice piece today on GE Jan 08, 15:22: Here's the chart...DROOY FLAG FIII Gist is - as goes little flag so goes big flag - a fractal thingy (like the CRB chart in Charts not Art Vol.2

I reckon I got in there early with Stealth Wealth though FIII's P.O (after $6 & re-test) is a bit higher than mine. Actually, my LT PO for DROOY is close to $three figures. (BTW I never did figure out how all the pics in that article drifted over to the left margin - I blame Bill Gates.)

MNMM saying good things about the future POS... And little APQ.TO up 8%... awwww.  And what about Hidefield http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=hif.l&d=c - the volume on this stock is most uncharacteristic (up on the day).

Wed 7th January

Back from work & seeing red. My present policy is simply to leave my shares alone (other than a little rotation) on the grounds that trading stocks has less cost-benefit than working my spread betting portfolio. Stocks attract 40% capital gains tax, unlike spread betting.  BTW HUI took a beating today (down > 3% ).

Thanks to Alan Quinnel for this heads up - apparently the gap was filled on VERY low volume.... Gap (CALVF)

Gold and especially silver hit new intra-day highs yesterday before retreating. HUI gave back half Monday's gains on Tuesday, with my UK portfolio and especially TVI Pacific keeping my total share portfolio in the black for the day (just). Added APQ.TO to my ISA account yesterday. 

Tuesday 6th January

A.M. action - PM's holding onto gains. I think the moment I knew we were in for a rally in PMs was when silver bounced off $5.40 (as I had predicted) in Asia during the first few hours of trading after Saddams's 'capture'. (On the GE forum I posted a comment that if silver closed over $5.50 it would never fall below $5.40 again). I thought - if playing their Ace didn't collapse the PMs, nothing will. After all - all the other potential surprises are going to be gold positive. Maybe if Osama is captured we might get a blip. I don't know. In any case I equate Osama with Emmanuel Goldstein from 1984 - the Military/Industrial/Banking/Chemical complex's necessary universal adversary to justify increasing population control.

Now I must go off to look for my car keys (I really am the absent-minded professor)

Monday 5th January

The Neo Year does seem to have started with a bang (thankfully metaphorically speaking). Monday was my biggest profit day ever - helped in no small measure by backing DROOY heavily when the chart suggested a breakout and the price was two bucks and change.... Now don't say I didn't warn you... FAN.TO was also good today, but MNMM up only a measly 5%! There MUST be a lot of potential energy in that stock, when you look at the way SSRI has been performing of late....

Good analysis of the ME situation. The hopes and aspirations expressed are admirable and well-thought out. However the writer does not seem to know that at least nearly half the 19 'hijackers' are still alive....

AMERICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST AFTER SADDAM

Parmalat: US banks caught in spotlight

Fascinating stuff!!! Highly recommended reading....

Timing the next Gold Bull

George Soros latest broadside...

'...The terrorist attack on the United States could have been treated as a crime against humanity rather than an act of war. Treating it as a crime would have been more appropriate. Crimes require police work, not military action.....'

'....Terrorism is not new. It was an important factor in nineteenth-century Russia, and it had a great influence on the character of the czarist regime, enhancing the importance of secret police and justifying authoritarianism....'

The Bubble of American Supremacy

Charts not Art Vol.1

Wednesday 31st Dec

Bought & sold DROOY futures to make a few more ££££s in swing trading. Let my SSRI get stopped out for a tidy bonus and am now keeping an eye on a FOREX spike showing Silver @ 5.45 and Gold @ 4.06. An anomaly or a 'signal'? We will see....

Tuesday 30th Dec

Yesterday was a big up day across the PM sector. DROOY up 9% with much more upside to come. Read what Captain Hook has to say about it, and gold, and silver, and the fate of fiat...

Today we treaded water (mostly because everyone is away) and already I hear ' Have the stocks priced in 420 gold?' - 'Is a top in?'. For goodness sake - we just put in an interim BOTTOM solidly held @ HUI 224/5! The wall of worry we have to climb is obviously intact. This is GOOD. Remember - when the person in the street starts going on about gold - THAT is the time to sell yours to them..... BTW DROOY, SSRI & MNMM strong into the close..... and FAN.TO up 9% - after one or 2 soft sell recommendations (not by me!).

On another note I hear that the disappearance of Beagle on Mars is now being blamed on a HUGE CRATER that has JUST BEEN DISCOVERED at the landing site. Ridiculous! Are they trying to say THEY DID NOT SURVEY THE SITE IN ADVANCE? 

WIGO?

HUIGE

Monday 29th Dec

Following the 10% jump in the likes of MNMM, CALVF & other US miners on Boxing Day we could see a short covering squeeze when markets open on Monday. I will try to post some charts (definitely not art!) later to give U an idea of what to expect. Meanwhile visit & vote for smsc @ Stockcharts (see link below) for the biggest & best (& possibly only) range of charts illustrating the application of 'Rodin's theory of logarithmic chart frames'.....

Beware the silent danger that threatens Britain plc

Congress authorizes Ashcroft to track gold in the U.S.

John Law

This article paints the bigger picture of which Saving Private Banking was one possible aspect. Though another 'thought' piece, it rings true.....

Currency/Gold War

On 13th December while all eyes were turned towards Santa Hussein's exhumation, the American constitution was being buried....

The Cutting Edge Weekly News Update

Everything is now in place for another 'terror' attack scenario.  Then it'll be  goodbye to the last vestiges of liberty. 

Protest Music

Matt Johnston (The The) warned us about the veneer of democracy starting to fade, and of all the world's little wars joining hands - two decades ago. Our school's carol serviced closed this year with the kids performing a moving rendition of Black-Eyed Peas smash hit 'Where Is The love'. An inspired choice.

Monday 22nd Dec

Quiet start so far.... Along with my usual PM portfolio I am long SSRI and DROOY and short the NAZ. We will see. 

Later that same day.....

Freight Train Strain on today's DROOY breakout

Weekend Roundup

Sell off of HUI continued into week-end. Now at crucial 225 support level. If the metals start to weaken appreciably the could see a bounce off 195 before the up-trend continues. Still looking for the start of the blow-off phase.

Interesting Wednesday

The metals are strengthening (not surprising to me as I am calling for $9+ silver in the new year) as the PMs dither. I sold GG last week (because I wanted more DROOY). GG's CEO sold some of his stock yesterday - much to the consternation of the share price. Much discussion on the G-E forum- is gold going down? - does he know something we don't? (Bit about 170 spike in HUI that was up for a couple of hours was nonsense - sorry - spike was actually down to 225 - a Fibo/trendline support level)  DROOY beginning to show a bit of muscle. Rand weakened a little as gold strengthened. One of these days..... My DROOY position is now substantial (for me). I also added some more CALVF.

Tuesday was a drag...

Did some portfolio tinkering. Not much 2 report really. Actually I have some great PM stock chart analyses right now, but they aren't traced. And what's more - I'm too busy to bother this week. It's Christmas for goodness sake. Short summary - The direction is, IMO, up.

Exhausted Monday

I really must get round to filling in those tax forms, but first - Today's action has been exceptional! Mot much happened. SM declined a bit, HUI up a tad, Silver nudged up & gold about unchanged. So why exceptional. Because

1) Saddam card was played

2) 40-week gold cycle bottomed

3) The TOC was in

I spent HOURS poring over data preparing my post-Saddam PM defence strategy - and I might as well have spent the evening in the pub. I repeat. NOTHING HAPPENED! AMAZING!

Saddam Captured Update

Up early this morning to prepare for trading. First up - check gold & silver - to find they have largely recovered. Gold bounced a dollar above 400, but it is Silver that gives me most confidence. As a result of research done for This Article I informed the forum that I thought after a $5.50 close on silver we wouldn't see sub $5.40 again. Now, I may still be wrong about that, but the bounce off $5.40 last night was - dramatic!

Saddam Captured

On 4th December I wrote in Money Sink

'...I am bullish PMs short-term - at least until USDX tests 87.5. We might have a rebound there to 96, with a corresponding drop in POG (but not as much as many think IMO), but not before we decisively take out 410 IMO....'

Well, we took out $410 last week, and the USDX got damned close to 87.5. But what could cause a bounce? The stocks seemed to sense something was up - a jittery down week even as the metals strengthened. SM rally into the week-end too - DOW 10,000....

My guess is the Saddam news was being held back UNTIL the weekend...

When the markets open on Monday 15th December it is likely that the dollar will be up - pushing silver and gold down. Gold in particular may also lose some of its 'safe haven' lustre temporarily. We could be looking at a $365 worst case, though I doubt it will get that bad. PM Stocks had half-anticipated this - and there may be more down side to come (check out HUIGE - possible 170 bounce target?). SMs will rise as shorts cover. Then, just as unexpectedly (unless you are watching the HUI when it does indeed hit 170) another 'event' will probably happen. BTW credit to former GE Forum poster 'Atlantis' for the best call of the year - beware the Dec 15 gold cycle low. I don't think even he was counting on something as 'drama'-tic as this to pull off his prediction. Make no mistake, this Private Lynch-esque affair is going to be played up to the hilt. I have some dry powder to pick up any heavily-discounted PM shares. My low bids are in. So, IMHO, are the bids of the cartel of gold derivative holders.

BTW - Dollar up, Rand down, as we leave the TOC area....

'James Turk has followed certain shifts in definition by the
U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve System regarding U.S.
gold reserves. The old term used to be "gold stock." The
portion of the gold stock at West Point was re-named
"custodial gold" in September, 2000. In June, 2001, this
gold was re-named again: 'deep storage gold'

I wonder how 'Deep?'...

Saving Private Banking

Not for the intellectually lazy ....

How the City of London caused the Great Depression

Natural Gas Price Soars 46 Percent

Dollar Plunges After Consumer Data

I will be updating HUIGE! regularly - er - make that provisionally definite.

Perhaps a gap will open up in the HUI in a day or 2 that may not be filled until we re-trace from the upper rail....

If it happens then the formula I will use will be (corrected BTW)

PO = (GAP - 115 x 2 ) + 115

IMO there are two possible short-term scenarios leading to one eventual outcome... a much higher HUIGE 

Option 1 - symmetrically timed moves on parallel sloping levels about central axis - posted yesterday Bad HUIws? It has a certain fearful symmetry about it, and would correlate with this article by Chris Temple.

Option 2 - Thanks to Alan Quinnel Smaller scale Fibo retracement completed, bounce off lower uptrend rail? I thought - if that is the case we have just created a significant charting point. Back to the drawing board..... HUIway 2 Heaven? ...sorry about the terrible puns!

Option 2 correlates with some explosive PM charts I have been looking at recently (and so will you be soon I hope). Short term (by next week?) it should be pretty obvious which of the above two scenarios will play out.

Thursday 11th Dec : Choppy Waters

There have been plenty warnings that a correction was coming. Whether the correction was triggered by 'Nervous Nellies', long-term cycles or manipulation behind the scenes, it is upon us. Some stocks seem fairly immune - smaller 'off the radar' stocks like (I almost started a list - but if I do list 'em TPTB can target them so I won't right now - you can find them if you search this site & DYODD).

Fibonacci retracements are repeating phenomena in markets. If this correction IS one, expect the HUI to drop to one of the following

200 > 185 > 170

From the retracement expect a rapid bounce to new highs. Missing the up-move will prove expensive.

My plans

Hold onto stocks that have either 1) retraced 'ahead of the pack' or 2) been basing for so long they might not retrace at all.

Trade my other stocks on the basis of limit sells & buys. There is money to be made here. Most of my Christmas shopping is going to be in the markets....

Good Luck!

PS I can't see how this can unfold without POG co-operating by falling below 400 to scare PM inverstors.

BTW The gold & Silver charts posted below could easily be construed as 'bearish rising wedges'. Caution is advised at this juncture.

Wednesday Dec 10th - The daily chart above (traced from candlestick - line from top to bottom & vice versa) shows 4 S/R lines. IMO the lowest is unlikely as I am looking for the completion of an inverse H & S. My money is on the dotted blue @ $5.50...

The above was written pre-Wall St opening. Since coming back in this evening I notice I have lost a few pounds in my portfolio.. HUI watchers should check out HUIGE update today (top article).

Tuesday Dec 9th - PM Shares down (HUI back @ 245), DOW down, Gold & Silver UP. Does not compute.... Oh yeah, CZN bounced back up and MNMM rising again.... thinks... these are shares for SMART investors running ahead of the game... will check 'em out again tomorrow. AVM was well up 'til this nervous Nellie HUI selling started, prompted by those negative letter-writers looking at linear charts and MACD - a useless (lagging) indicator when rocket moves are around the corner IMO. Work rest of week, so probably no more charts for a few days....

Monday Dec 8th - this could be the start of a big move for gold? Silver up today, Gold strong, dollar weak, PM shares moribund and DOW up 100 in the teeth of a 3% NIKKEI sell-off. Work that one out... CZN.TO hit on dilution issue - see Hommel. JS makes much of strange 'quiet' wars in the ME causing dollars to be dumped. I like the chart of UK:AVM. Going over £1 IMO.

Comment: the dollar pump is keeping SMs and Gold up artificially. Gold should be at the bottom of the 8-week cycle now and rising, the stock market should have topped out. Gold is entering an up-cycle now - this will take it to 440 IMO, where it should build the right inverse shoulder needed to complete inverse H & S. The only way is UP. However, the dollar might (I say might - especially after looking at a 20-year chart where the previous $ sell-of did NOT have a right shoulder) have a bounce from 87.5 as per Money Sink. This would have the effect of raising the $ versus the Rand during a gold upsurge, helping SA miners enormously. We will see....

Herein lie the Charts

of SMSC

Give him your vote

If U like what U C

 George Soros - Imperial Wizard/Double Agent?

South Korea goes into free fall

Adam Hamilton calls for a correction

Adam is rightly massively bullish on PM's going forward, and expects a  series of these big run-ups in the PM's over the coming years. He is right IMO. He also has noted that structures repeat on an ever-increasing scale going forward. Right again. However IMO a log chart is the proper way to view these structures now otherwise 1) The stuff at the bottom has poor signal to noise (Check out the log and linear long-term CA:TVI on  Bigchart.com to see an extreme example of what I mean!) plus 2) The herd is logarithmic in nature. Adam's immediate expectations seem to be based on linear charts (and other indicators).

Since many like Alan are calling for a correction, it may happen. However I think the HUI has NOT entered its interim blow-off stage yet. Some of you may remember me calling for HUI 275 and think we are almost there – time to bail out. Well, 275 is taking longer to come about than I thought – and that couple of months makes all the difference on a log chart with a steep up-trend. When the HUI peak starts looking like the big brother of the previous two HUI peaks on a LOG chart I will be divesting a portion of my PM shares & looking to buy more physical.

Nov. Insider Stock Sales Hit 2-Year High
 
$400 Gold a done deal?
 
Friday Dec 5th - Nice close on the HUI. Looking forward to next week....

I use spread betting in the UK to trade futures. I have around 5% at stake right now in this highly leveraged market. (I am otherwise 50/50 stocks & metal - up to the hilt)

Right now I have bought silver and DROOY. I have sold the SMs. My SMs are negative balance, silver doing very nicely and DROOY about even. My feeling on these 3 bets is that a move in my favour may be sudden and large, a move against me is likely to be more modest and gradual. Thus skewing the odds in my favour.

Why am I playing this casino? Because any gains will be completely TAX FREE!

My Canadians took a while to take off, now they are up with the NA shares. I see the loonie is up 20% versus $, Rand up 30%. Canadians started to get jumpy mid-late summer - what was gold back then - about $375? At some point the gold price overcame investor resistance (due to the strong C$). The same thing could happen to DROOY and the strong Rand, IMO? We are in the TOC right now - and yet we sit above $400! Going forward, IF the cycle is still there but simply hidden by the depreciating dollar masking gold's low - then we could be in for a pretty spectacular 2 months...

Plus I have a theory that the gold hedgers are in collusion with the CBs and are keeping the Rand high (well, dollar low) long enough to acquire shares in undervalued SA companies as a hedge against their gold derivative problems.... Gold takes off... DROOY makes a move ... Then they up interest rates in the US due to 'strong growth' (of debt)... The $ rallies vs the Rand - adding fuel to the fire...

  Saving Private Banking

Well, with a chart like DROOY one has to come up with some rationale for a price explosion in the face of apparent overwhelming fundamental evidence to the contrary...

&;-{>

Disclaimer - I have not made a penny on DROOY this year, which is why I have increased my position from modest to more than moderate now. DROOY is a bit like the SM's - this is getting personal....

 Wed Dec 3rd Many expect a short pull back before Christmas. This may become self-fulfilling. On the other hand there is a strong possibility of a run up from here. I will risk a short term loss to stay in the game at this juncture. Perhaps I will swing trade a bit if I have time. 

Bill Murphy of GATA thinks this 3rd consecutive close solidly over $400 will trigger a derivatives meltdown. Interesting times. 
 
 Jason Hommel on Silver

Dollar Implosion II

Silver Cells @ Gold Eagle

Friday 6th Dec - HUI down 8 points and change yesterday. PM shares shaken from a few more weak hands, I suspect. Yesterday I bought DROOY futures in anticipation of a 500% run-up. On the other hand there might be 20% pull-back. Those are my kind of odds. And I tell you what, if DROOY fills the gap down to $2, I will be buying more! 

Wednesday 4th Dec - HUI down a couple of points - just as well - it was begining to look like a blowoff, MNMM chopping in the $6-7 range right now. I see a symmetrical triangle forming.

Dec. HUI keeps making new highs. This could be the start of the rocket moves....

FRI 28th Nov. I was showing my 10 year old son the triangles in the silver charts - his comment? 'The only way to get that pattern is if the charts are rigged!' Perceptive lad. HUI hit new high - nearly 250 now. My targets are 275 and 400. 

THU 27th Nov. America closed, but TVI.TO up another 21%. This stock could go mega? I also like the look of the American Beauties... When are the UK Small cap miners going to take off? BTW - the silver charts show a sizeable price surge coming up as per the Isoscoles Triangles chart in Triggeronometry....

WED 26th Nov. As U R probably are aware - new interim HUI high (240+) going into US Thanksgiving holiday. I would not B surprised to see 400 HUI in 1-5 months. I would, however, be selling you my PM shares by then. MNMM up a lot again (good) also WHT CDE CAU and just about ALL my stocks except GXPM (currently contrarian par excellence - used to be MNMM that ran counter to trend). Having said that GPXM is doing OK. PMU up a bundle today - hot tip from a 'Rodin' contactor. I can't buy everything. Message to Roger Z. Have not forgotten U - more later. P.S. I have made some astonishing T.A. discoveries of late - am now looking for a great calculus T.A. expert to consolidate a joint Nobel prize in Quantum Geonomics. Apply within - especially if U R from Warwick University maths dept. BTW silver is going to $9 next year. Get on board....

TA Watch Archive

UK PATRIOT ACT

Goodbye civil liberties - hello imprisonment without trial, confiscation of property, evacuation and quarantining powers and total control over the media. If this site disappears, it will NOT be because I haven't renewed my domain name....

Sweeping new emergency laws to be enacted this week to counter UK terror

This after....

General Tommy Franks calls for Repeal of US Constitution

Pentagon Wants To Scrap Democracy In America

Looks like some sort of end-game?

The murder of democracy

Not only courageous & principled, but sharp....

READER: Can anyone provide me with a list of International Treaties Bush has destroyed since in power? This list needs to be shown to all the Bush sympathisers in the UK.

WRH: I'm sure Tony Blair has already seen the list.

It is also time for the SMs and the PMs to revert to type - by moving in opposite directions....

U.S. inventories rise for first time in 6 months

...but with computers holding up the markets....

The Real Jobs Numbers

Anything's possible - for a while. Still, "You really have to worry because these are the worst figures we've ever seen."...

Insider selling at a 10 year high!

Is the Washington Agreement a Fraud?

...A VERY strong case is made for Bullion Bank gold sales not being sales at all, but acknowledgement of previously made sales at best, and outright fraud at worst. A super-strain of the Enronitis virus?

Silverfinger

...What let the silver side down was ultimately the leveraged futures contracts - once the silver price bubble was pricked the debts on future purchases broke the silver bank. Today silver is 1/10th of what it reached in 1980. Today there is a silver shortage the activity of futures traders is hiding this fact from full market exposure. But not for much longer, IMO. Many investors rather than a few large ones are beginning to realise the value of solid, as opposed to paper, silver in the event of a monetary collapse. With our Silver In Store facility you can have real bullion stored in a former Englehard vault in the UK owned by a family of bullion merchants who have been serving Jewellers for 225 years. Note - $50 silver would equate to £30 here.

Week beginning 10/11/2003. My little dabble in UNCN.OB was short lived - nothing to do with share action - all to do with broker error! Damn! Up 100% too!!!!!

George Soros: Bush, Sharon policies inflame European anti-Semitism

The fact this little number on Rumor Mill News got about five times as many hits as any other post ....

World Stock Markets are Heading for a Crash-like Collapse

..... indicates how seriously the subject is being taken.

Bankruptcies reach record high as debt overwhelms consumers

 Mutual Fund Scandal Keeps Growing - 'A Cesspool'

Real Estate Fire Sale?....

The Collapse of the Middle Class

Mogambo Guru pulls out a gem!

Huge US mutual fund in crisis

Fannie Mae trading halted

U.S. Worries About Russia Freezing Assets

Perle: Exclude Russia From G-8 After Tycoon Arrest

The next 2 items are connected....

House prices accelerate again

Britons take on record debt

Hmmm...

US economic growth soars

Monetary war declared on the US

Monday 24th November

HUI down 5+ to 230. MNMM got hammered down 13% from the top rail to the bottom rail of the rising wedge today. So much for the inverse H & S! This 'storm in a teacup with handle' should pass quickly. MNMM will either bounce up tomorrow or meet support from a rising bottom channel rail at around $4.80. Many leveraged PMs over-reacted to Mondays moderate weakening of POG (silver also down but up into the close). TVI looking strong, as is SRB. I guess many traders are keeping a weather eye out for a surprise TOC. Due about now or next week if at all. Then we really should be off to the races....as you can see from HUI Views (above & on G-E) I am expecting a skirmish with 400 by spring, and possibly by 1st Jan 2004! Now that WOULD be nice.

Saturday 22nd November

BTW - I rotated very little of FAN & TVI (they are strong holds IMO) but more of AOT. I have had a few more tips in the email that I'm studying at the moment - will post when ready. MNMM gave up some very recent gains last 2 days - will keep an eye on next weeks action - just normal action so far. 

Wednesday 19th November

Well, we touched $400 last night (see above). HUI took a hit - until it closed UP at the end - another NEW HIGH! Last night MNMM was mysteriously hit after-hours into that wedge. Just as mysteriously, it popped right back up again at the open! Here MNMM we have a text-book case of testing former resistance (now support) before we launch again tomorrow! (Up in after hours trading tonight). OK That's enough on MNMM for a while unless it does something unexpected. Next bulletin will be when it overtakes SSRI...

CALVF, DROOY, CAU, VGZ are all looking likely. Only GPXM seems unsure which way to jump - maybe it has gotten ahead of the game. I am taking a fresh look at the HUI tonight. I want to firm up my PO & TO going into this blow-off. See you later...

Yesterday rotated some TVI/AOT/FAN profits into GQM.TO and  CZN.TO (better late than never - and it was a dip). 

Tuesday 18th November

HUI closes at all-time high - 235

With PMs and SMs rising together you just KNEW something was out of kilter. Now the SMs are rolling over, and that's when the PM's really start to move. This looks like the mid-November blow-off I kind of knew was coming - a week or two late, but here at last. There is a lot of pressure behind this move. 

Monday 17th November

TVI Pacific (25%) & MNMM (12%) did well today despite HUI being bopped...

Bigcharts TVI

We can see why TVI took off...

TVI Pacific Inc. Receives Landmark Approval for Wholly Foreign-Owned Enterprise (WFOE) Status From Chinese Government

...But why did...

MNMM.OB

.....hold onto 12% gains in the teeth of a silver bop going into options expiration? Because it is worth more than it's present price (See Jason Hommel's F.A.)- and because it has closed above the 'bearish' rising pennant. It has also completed an inverse head & shoulders. If tomorrow confirms, I think we can begin to discount other 'bearish' rising pennants too. It is time to move into 'Concorde' mode...

Friday's Action

Pretty good from where I'm standing. Unable to participate fully in the PM drama of past few days due to pressing OFSTED inspection next week! Am on top of it though, and hope to post some INTERESTING STUFF THIS W/END. Sorry to be so boring, but MNMM went up a lot again....

Thursday's Action

The Nikkei was down over 2.5% last night, and that's before UK interest rates rise later today. Also I've been trawling thru Hommel's list again, and there are some bargains to be had in there. More later....

Wednesday's Action

We let off a few fireworks tonight. The boys were thrilled! 

PM's pretty quiet, FAN.TO up even more - I wonder if it will hit previous highs? TVI wobbled a little, but is still well up. Overall HUI down a tad, my porty up rather more.

 MNMM grinding up and - better news - that bearish triangle is beginning to take on the form of a up-channel. More as the days go by. DROOY is still building that right shoulder - breakout is not imminent (probably).... If it closes much below $2.60 I may have to re-appraise - but I noticed it dipped below support on the way into this stealth diamond - so no surprise if it does something similar on the way out....

Tuesday's Action

MNMM back up 7% at time of writing (triangle support bounce as predicted), TVI holding (a very good sign) - yesterday's gains were made on HUGE volume - silver up 8 cents (4%) at time of writing, gold up $2. Interesting times for PM investors...

A word about the KITCO charts

Gold and silver are priced in Sterling. However, the + or - figures relate to the current DOLLAR value! Clock on the chart if you want to go into Kitco for more prices....

Monday's Action

MNMM down 15%

TVI up 30%

Ag & Au hit hard

Right! This is war! No way should silver be back under £3 or $5, interest rate hike on Thursday or not. This bop was designed, among other things, to try to push MNMM (jammed at upper resistance for a few days) out of the bottom support of the 'bearish' ascending triangle, thereby discouraging Ag investors. Well, it didn't work. The 'dramatic' fall in MNMM was only as far as support within this short-term ascending triangle. In fact, maybe TPTB did me a favour - because now it can bounce up again with enough momentum to finally break right thru resistance! (Perhaps this was just the cocking the pistol needed).

The world now knows how undervalued many (not all) silver stocks are  thanks to Jason Hommel's FA - and investment reality is bound to catch up sooner or later.....

MNMM will be the MSFT of this decade!

I see gold got hit too .... COT trying for a TOC in November? Only to be expected absent a cycle-breaking event (a possibility higher than many believe). If gold hits $360-ish it could be time to buy futures again. Mind you if THIS is significant info, maybe physical would be a better bet?

I find this useful for swing trading....

YEN

I cannot deny that some PM charts are giving short term bearish signals, the topic du jour on Gold Eagle Forum. 

 MNMM (my most profitable stock in the last 12 months) is looking into a potentially bearish rising pennant formation. Then again, there must be a swathe of newly-aware investors awaiting just such a pull-back to get into MNMM. They will not be buying my shares.

I have way too many PM stocks right now. Such diversity minimises risk, but it also mitigates against big swings. My guess is that now is the time for certain laggard juniors and micro-caps to take up front-running.

T.A. Watch

A series of one-(or two)-liners on observed stocks - we will see how the TA predictions go by Christmas. More later & Often. Not investment advice - DYODD.

29/10/03 Golden Band has broken out of not 1, not 2 but 3 significant triangles. Inverse H & S predicts 70 cents in short order. Farallon Resources is testing shallow descending resistance (now @ 60cents) for the 4th time in 4 years. PO $1.60 near-term. Much much higher later. Goldspring sprung today - has been 100 times higher. Giant teacup with handle.

 22/10/03 Ascot Resources Set to break out of symmetrical triangle to upside after treading water all year? TVI Pacific Already on Hommel's radar and you can see why.

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